May, 19 2017 by lsr team

FX prospects to revive debt problems

Charles Dumas, Chief Economist at TS Lombard.
Highlights:
- Dollar near past real highs – could relapse later this year
- Pound and yen both undervalued – likely to stay that way
- China’s yuan overvalued – no major move till autumn congress
- Euro still undervalued – may rise sharply when ECB tightens
- Current account balances now matter – yen safe haven in 2018
- China’s debt soaring but not yet dangerous – growth to slow
- Japan’s high debt rising inexorably – could soon test tolerances
- Italy’s debt dangerous soon after ECB stimulus is reduced