While it is always dangerous to extrapolate from the recent past, the consensus expects 2016 to look remarkably like 2015. The issues that have dominated market commentary over the past 12 months – EM weakness, global deflation and central bank divergence – remain the sellside’s favourite 2016 themes. There is also a surprising amount of agreement about what will happen. Growth will move sideways, inflation will remain too low and the divergence trade has further to run. This degree of consensus is more likely to frighten investors than to reassure them that there are lots of ways these forecasts could go wrong.
In our case, we look for potential surprises and examine what could go wrong in the three themes for 2016. Click below for the full report.