October, 14 2016 by lsr team

The euro area LI continues to put in an above consensus call. It is probably over predicting growth somewhat but its strength is fundamentally underpinned by the newly emerged German locomotive. While German demand often turns out to be derived from others, chiefly China, in this case it is genuine. In fact, this is highlighted by our below consensus Australia call. China’s stimulus has not fed through to a rebound in private demand, although easing PPI deflation is helping manufacturers.

August, 06 2015 by lsr team

Last Friday’s monthly GDP data reveal that the Canadian economy has not recovered from the oil price shock as quickly as the Bank of Canada had hoped. Output contracted for the fifth month in a row since January and it is highly likely that the economy fell into a technical recession in 2015 H1 for the first time since 2000Q4, when the US subprime crisis shook the world. Despite the disappointing H1 data, we believe that growth will rebound in H2 as the impact of the US recovery kicks in. However, while we remain constructive in the near-term outlook of Canada&rsqu...