July, 22 2016 by lsr team

Our preliminary estimates show that Chinese GDP growth stabilised at 6% in Q2. Domestic demand growth slowed to 5% in Q2, but offset by net trade. With the improvement in activity momentum largely a result of policy stimulus, it is highly questionable whether the government’s growth target can be achieved without fresh stimulus to boost investment. More worryingly, despite the recent stabilisation in industrial profits, private fixed asset investment growth has remained weak. With the outlook of domestic demand souring, companies are under pressure to deleverage an...

April, 15 2016 by lsr team

Investor sentiment has started to perk up recently on the back of a series of strong data. With exports popping almost 20% year on year in March, heavily distorted by the Chinese New Year, a local journalist has asked if a U-shaped recovery in the economy was on the cards. Unfortunately, we are just at the beginning of yet another mini-cycle of the sort we have been through over the past couple of years. On our preliminary estimate, Chinese GDP expanded 7.1% at an annualised rate in Q1. That is up from 5.5% in Q4 and is the fastest pace in almost two years. What is the m...

January, 13 2016 by lsr team

With the offshore Chinese yuan plunging to a five-year low against the dollar, how worried should we be? Freya Beamish, economist at Lombard Street Research, discusses the Chinese yuan and China’s economy. Click here to watch the video on CNBC.    

June, 12 2015 by lsr team

China’s stock market is piping hot with the A-share market up nearly 60% this year. But China’s economy has lost momentum sharply, with real GDP falling by 0.2% in Q1 according to LSR estimates, the worst since the global financial crisis. Our Chief Economist and Head of Research, Diana Choyleva talks about the two opposing forces and why it’s important for the Chinese authorities to support the equity market. Click here if you're interested to watch the full video on CNBC or...

June, 11 2015 by lsr team

One of our senior economists, Richard Batley has just come back from a client trip to the US.  Five days of visits to investment managers up and down the East Coast should serve to dispel any doubts that Chinese equity volatility is front and center of almost all investors’ minds.  At nearly every meeting we were asked: Should we buy or sell Chinese equities? It’s an important question and deserves a detailed answer.  Critical to this investment decision is understanding why China’s slumping growth and booming equity market, that appear...