October, 21 2016 by lsr team

Some claim a US recession is ‘overdue’, but leading indicators are edging higher and we are not seeing the macro imbalances typically associated with major downturns. Rising bond yields and a correction in equity markets provide the clearest 2017 threats, while corporate indebtedness could compound these risks.

January, 14 2016 by lsr team

Twelve months ago, economists were busy trying to assess the impact of the collapse in oil prices on the global economy. Opinion was divided. Some thought the 60% drop in prices would provide a sizeable boost to consumer demand. Other economists were sceptical, worrying that the plunge told us something disturbing about the state of the global economy. A final group of commentators was even gloomier, arguing the inevitable correction in shale fracking would cause a US recession and tip the world into a crisis. At LSR we were on the optimistic side of the debate, though w...