September, 02 2016 by lsr team

It’s our concern that inflation in the US will eventually outpace market expectations in 2017, as sturdy demand plays out against a weakened supply side and wages and inflation spur each other along. However, for now, real wage growth may even moderate in the US, as wage negotiations typically reflect inflation 6 quarters previously. In this video, we outline what is holding down the long end of the curve in the US and highlight a tactical trade from our strategists before these deeper themes play out. Is it Draghi that holds the key?

August, 05 2016 by lsr team

In our UK Outlook published shortly after the UK’s Brexit referendum, we outlined our expectation for the August MPC meeting of a 25bp interest rate cut and a new QE programme of around £100bn. At the time, the market was expecting a rate cut but the resumption of QE was a firm off-consensus call. When it came to it, the Bank of England delivered the quarter-point rate cut and, as yesterday’s re-pricing of sterling and the gilts curve demonstrated, surprised the market with a new £70bn QE package. To find out more, click above to watch the video o...