March, 24 2016 by lsr team

We recently published the Q2 2016 edition of the LSR UK Outlook. Our central forecasts assume that the UK remains in the EU, but we also modelled a ‘Brexit risk’ scenario. This risk involved shocking the model in a number of different ways, in particular by weakening trade-weighted sterling, increasing the level of household’s precautionary saving and reducing the share of business investment associated with exports to the EU to a ‘depreciation-replacement’ only level. The difference in the quarterly profile of growth between our central pro...

October, 15 2015 by lsr team

The FOMC decision to keep interest rates on hold in September left a number of economists confused and angry. Some argued the committee was ignoring its mandate and pandering to external considerations. With GDP growing at a healthy pace for a seventh consecutive year and the labour market approaching full employment, a broad reading of US data made it hard to justify emergency levels of interest rates. Some investors, particularly those based in the US, were worried that the Fed was trying to become the world’s central bank, rather than staying within its own ju...