- EMs to benefit from US and Chinese reflation in 2017
- But global macro ‘push’ factors set to recede thereafter
- Mature US recovery at risk from tighter monetary conditions
- Beijing’s debt-RMB dilemma pressing as the mini-cycle turns
- Global search for yield to persist, albeit tempered
- Lift-off growth phase elusive for North Asia’s exporters
- Clogged rate and FX channels leave fiscal stimulus option
The euro area LI continues to put in an above consensus call. It is probably over predicting growth somewhat but its strength is fundamentally underpinned by the newly emerged German locomotive. While German demand often turns out to be derived from others, chiefly China, in this case it is genuine. In fact, this is highlighted by our below consensus Australia call. China’s stimulus has not fed through to a rebound in private demand, although easing PPI deflation is helping manufacturers.
Twelve months ago we said 2015 would be a year of ‘deceptive calm’. With the S&P 500 up 5% and US 10-year yields around 5bps higher, you could say our forecast was accurate. Markets spent much of the year in an anxious state, fretting about Greece, then China, then the risk of a synchronised global recession. In 2006 and 2007, LSR had a high conviction that a financial meltdown was about to wreak havoc on the global economy. This time around we stick with our 2015 theme ‘Keep Dancing’ but with no great conviction. Looking ahead to 2016, China...
The emerging market (EM) slowdown that started in 2011 and gathered pace after the taper tantrums of 2013 continues unabated. The two questions investors often asked over the last couple of years have been: are EMs heading for a 1990s-style crash and is the worst behind us? We have replied No to both, and the follow-up question has usually been ‘how much more pain is in store?’ This has been tough to answer. Our latest publication - LSR View looks at the extent of the adjustments that EMs still need to make by answering the following set of questions: 1) W...
A 3% depreciation in the yuan (CNY) is, per se, hardly a game changer for global markets. But the move could have broader implications, certainly in the near term – not least as Japan and the euro area are firmly in easing mode. Sustained CNY depreciation will send disinflationary impulses to the rest of the world, complicating EM policymakers’ task and magnifying risks around domestic EM leverage. To find out more about how a weaker yuan amplifies the EM ‘slow burn’ challenges we have identified in the past, click below.
China joins currency wars, just as the Fed prepares to raise rates. The move in the yuan over the last couple of days is the sharpest since the steep devaluation of 1994, which is often cited as one of the first actions that ultimately led to a widespread emerging market financial crisis. The start of the Fed’s rate rise cycle during the same year was the straw that broke the camel’s back. What does it bode for emerging markets this time around? Please click below for the full report.