March, 09 2017 by lsr team

Xi Jinping promised in November 2015, that the economy would grow at 6.5% through to 2020. This was necessary, he said, to fulfill a promise by his predecessor, Hu Jintao, to double the 2010 GDP and per capita income by the end of the decade. However, over the past year, there have been several signs that Xi might be willing to back away from this pledge. After recent conversations in Beijing, we believe:
• Policymakers will accept growth below 6.5% from next year. 
• The change responds to a wide-scale recognition that the current rapid pace of...

October, 07 2015 by lsr team

Over the last year investors have finally accepted that the global savings glut, which we at Lombard Street Research have discussed for many years, is one of the main drivers of the global economy and of asset class returns. The collapse of the oil price in 2014 and the depreciation of the Chinese yuan in 2015 are the seminal events that have caused the scales to drop from even the most sceptical of eyes. While investors alert to deflation risks are now looking mainly to Asia and Lat-Am where market capitalisations are highest, more fragile states facing greater deflatio...