October, 14 2016 by lsr team

The euro area LI continues to put in an above consensus call. It is probably over predicting growth somewhat but its strength is fundamentally underpinned by the newly emerged German locomotive. While German demand often turns out to be derived from others, chiefly China, in this case it is genuine. In fact, this is highlighted by our below consensus Australia call. China’s stimulus has not fed through to a rebound in private demand, although easing PPI deflation is helping manufacturers.

July, 07 2016 by lsr team

Last quarter we warned that, although growth was likely to remain positive during our 2-year forecast horizon, the end of the cycle was now in sight. Since then the Brexit vote has dragged forward the debilitating effect of final demand uncertainty on investment that we would normally associate with the very late cycle. As a result we expect a technical recession during H2 2016. To find out more about Brexit’s impact on the UK economy, click above the watch the video or below for our latest UK Outlook report.  

November, 16 2015 by lsr team

Back in 2008 when central bankers were battling the global financial crisis, they knew they needed extraordinary measures to calm markets and guard against a collapsing world economy. But no one expected that seven years later interest rates would still be at emergency levels and that quantitative easing had not only been on a greater scale than first envisaged but had not even started to be unwound. Clearly, in the words of Lord Mervyn King, governor of the Bank of England (2003-2013), “the conventional approach to thinking about monetary policy doesn’t seem to...