January, 25 2016 by lsr team

Markets are jittery and the latest manufacturing data, both from the US and the wider global economy, are doing nothing to restore confidence. Last week’s plunge in the Empire State index confirms a trend that has been apparent for some time – global industry is struggling. Since manufacturing has often been reliable guidance to near-term macro trends, investors are understandably worried. It is no coincidence, for example, that industrial data play a dominant role in the OECD’s leading indicators. So why are manufacturers struggling? More importantly,...

October, 27 2015 by lsr team

China’s economy has entered a critical period in its post-crisis adjustment, posing serious risks for the rest of the world. Our final GDP estimate shows Chinese growth at just 0.4% QoQ in Q3, the weakest since the Global Financial Crisis. Its sharp growth slowdown, feeding through into a deterioration in the labour market, will be a stern test of Beijing’s resolve to reform in coming quarters.  So far policymakers have stayed firm. The central bank cut interest rates and banks’ required reserve ratio (RRR) last Friday in a bid to support grow...

August, 06 2015 by lsr team

Last Friday’s monthly GDP data reveal that the Canadian economy has not recovered from the oil price shock as quickly as the Bank of Canada had hoped. Output contracted for the fifth month in a row since January and it is highly likely that the economy fell into a technical recession in 2015 H1 for the first time since 2000Q4, when the US subprime crisis shook the world. Despite the disappointing H1 data, we believe that growth will rebound in H2 as the impact of the US recovery kicks in. However, while we remain constructive in the near-term outlook of Canada&rsqu...