October, 14 2016 by lsr team

The euro area LI continues to put in an above consensus call. It is probably over predicting growth somewhat but its strength is fundamentally underpinned by the newly emerged German locomotive. While German demand often turns out to be derived from others, chiefly China, in this case it is genuine. In fact, this is highlighted by our below consensus Australia call. China’s stimulus has not fed through to a rebound in private demand, although easing PPI deflation is helping manufacturers.

January, 25 2016 by lsr team

Markets are jittery and the latest manufacturing data, both from the US and the wider global economy, are doing nothing to restore confidence. Last week’s plunge in the Empire State index confirms a trend that has been apparent for some time – global industry is struggling. Since manufacturing has often been reliable guidance to near-term macro trends, investors are understandably worried. It is no coincidence, for example, that industrial data play a dominant role in the OECD’s leading indicators. So why are manufacturers struggling? More importantly,...

October, 22 2015 by lsr team

The Trans Pacific Partnership is publicly touted in Japan as a boon for exporters, but a well-designed FTA should be geared towards households. The chief gains from free trade typically arise from tougher import competition. The aim of an FTA in Japan should be to increase the efficiency of goods and services provision so that consumers benefit from a more competitively priced product while workers earn more thanks to improved productivity. That’s a heady ideal, and in practice it doesn’t always work like this. The report below examines two key issues: 1) to...