January, 23 2017 by lsr team

Questions: 1) Last October you noted that Sterling(£) was getting oversold and that the market was overly concerned with respect to the UK’s external balances. 2) Currently on a real effective exchange rate basis how cheap is Sterling(£)? 3) You also highlighted previously that within an overall negative view on sovereign bonds(ex EM high yielders), gilts might be particularly vulnerable? 4) So one of our key macro trades remains short gilts/long US Treasuries? 5) Last week before PM May’s speech you suggested that whatever its content...

July, 30 2015 by lsr team

Recent comments by various MPC members and last week’s MPC minutes make next week’s Quarterly Inflation Report an interesting event to watch. Since the recovery began in mid-2013, policy discussions have centred on the debate between the economy’s cyclical strength and structural weakness in the labour market. Labour market conditions, however, have improved over the past year with a sharp rise in employment and wage inflation picking up. The UK’s domestic recovery is becoming increasingly solid, but is still vulnerable to external weakness, mostl...