March, 17 2017 by lsr team

- Chair Yellen dampens market’s policy trajectory - she has to, we don’t
- February retail sales weakened by tax refund delays; underlying demand strong
- CPI details indicate a change - rising prices for discretionary goods

April, 20 2016 by lsr team

The EM asset rally has been underpinned by a dovish Fed, receding fears of US recession and tentative evidence of macro stabilisation in China following a shift to pro-growth policies in Beijing. What has received less attention is the role played by recent yen appreciation, from both fundamental and risk angles. The onset of Abenomics weakened JPY/USD by some 40% in the space of three years. The yen bottomed in June, received a boost in the wake of August’s CNY step devaluation and embarked on a relatively steep appreciation path in December 2015 as global risk av...

June, 12 2015 by lsr team

The strong May data showing 17.9 million annual rate of car sales and 0.7% bounce in retail sales. In other words, US consumers are using their gasoline windfalls to buy new cars and using them to drive to the mall. Since before the Q1 soft-patch we have highlighted the likelihood of a consumer-led acceleration in growth during the second half of 2015 - this now seems to be underway. By the time school starts again in September there should be enough confirmation of this acceleration to push the Fed over the line to its first rate hike. In the meantime,...