Grace Fan, Director Brazil/Latin America Research talks about the two main challenges facing Brazil. - Fiscal vulnerability is rising as the reform agenda has been derailed - Political chaos as President Temer has now become embroiled in Lava Jato corruption scandal.
Jonathan Fenby, Managing Director, European Political Research, and Ken Wattret, Managing Director, Global Macro, discuss and answer your questions on this issue including:
- The probable result and the market reaction to either a Le Pen or Macron victory
- The economic outlook in either outcome
- The reform agenda needed to improve growth and encourage investors
- The reform that each candidate would be able to deliver
- Why both Macron and Le Pen would both have difficulty leading the French government
- How investors should posit...
Xi Jinping promised in November 2015, that the economy would grow at 6.5% through to 2020. This was necessary, he said, to fulfill a promise by his predecessor, Hu Jintao, to double the 2010 GDP and per capita income by the end of the decade. However, over the past year, there have been several signs that Xi might be willing to back away from this pledge. After recent conversations in Beijing, we believe:
• Policymakers will accept growth below 6.5% from next year.
• The change responds to a wide-scale recognition that the current rapid pace of...
Dario Perkins on:
• Markets are now more realistic on President Trump
• US tax agenda more important than fiscal
• Stimulus will come late in the business cycle
• No likely improvement in productivity and medium-term growth
• Border adjustment tax unlikely to happen
Jonathan Fenby sets out 12 reasons why China feels good:
1. China’s economy is ticking over on a cyclical reflation path with sharp PPI recovery coming through.
2. Though it will get worse in absolute terms, the debt problem has been diffused for now by shifting it away from banks and local governments.
3. Currency outflows have moderated for the time being. The housing sector is heading for a correction not a meltdown.
4. Preparations for the Communist Party Congress in late 2017 seem to be on track with no challenge to Xi as he moves into his...
Charles Dumas, director of Lombard Street Research, discusses the EU referendum’s impact on the UK unemployment numbers, and Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s latest comments on monetary easing. He says the Bank of Japan has no control over the currency market and that people have an exaggerated understanding of the power of central banks. Click here to download and listen to the Bloomberg podcast or below to read his la...
Over the past three years, Beijing under the leadership of Xi Jinping has changed the direction of its economic policy decisively. Alone among the world’s major savers, China has embarked on necessary but painful reforms rather than opt for competitive devaluation. Despite much weaker growth, overall policy has been tight. By Chinese standards, progress on financial liberalisation has been swift. However, the ultimate success of China’s policy drive will depend on three big IFs. To find out more about whether China will be able to rebalance and help the globa...
China’s economic transformation is a game-changer for the world economy. Recent market jitters have shown that investors have now begun to acknowledge the sharp growth slowdown we forecast. Yet confusion and uncertainty abound as most regard China’s economy and politics a black box. China’s equity market crash, the authorities’ panic intervention and the growth slowdown have undermined confidence in China’s economy and policymaking. But it seems investors’ own fear is now preventing them from seeing the big picture and important change...
Japan’s Q2 real GDP declined at a 1.6% annual rate, led by consumer spending and exports. While Q1 was buoyant, underlying growth since the start of Abenomics –QE in late 2012 has been no better than on trend. The Q2 contraction would have been a lot worse if the government had not resumed boosting public investment, and government spending in general, to complement continued massive QE. The basic problem in Japan remains that only exports seem capable of generating growth in the economy. Japan has two alternatives: implement structural measures to slash corp...