- EMs to benefit from US and Chinese reflation in 2017
- But global macro ‘push’ factors set to recede thereafter
- Mature US recovery at risk from tighter monetary conditions
- Beijing’s debt-RMB dilemma pressing as the mini-cycle turns
- Global search for yield to persist, albeit tempered
- Lift-off growth phase elusive for North Asia’s exporters
- Clogged rate and FX channels leave fiscal stimulus option
The emerging market (EM) slowdown that started in 2011 and gathered pace after the taper tantrums of 2013 continues unabated. The two questions investors often asked over the last couple of years have been: are EMs heading for a 1990s-style crash and is the worst behind us? We have replied No to both, and the follow-up question has usually been ‘how much more pain is in store?’ This has been tough to answer. Our latest publication - LSR View looks at the extent of the adjustments that EMs still need to make by answering the following set of questions: 1) W...
China joins currency wars, just as the Fed prepares to raise rates. The move in the yuan over the last couple of days is the sharpest since the steep devaluation of 1994, which is often cited as one of the first actions that ultimately led to a widespread emerging market financial crisis. The start of the Fed’s rate rise cycle during the same year was the straw that broke the camel’s back. What does it bode for emerging markets this time around? Please click below for the full report.