March, 01 2017 by lsr team

Dario Perkins on: • Markets are now more realistic on President Trump
• US tax agenda more important than fiscal 
• Stimulus will come late in the business cycle
• No likely improvement in productivity and medium-term growth
• Border adjustment tax unlikely to happen

January, 27 2017 by lsr team

Successful renegotiation of NAFTA is likely but will not provide the template for the US administration’s future China policies. - US-Mexican trade is dominated by global value chains. US-sourced content in Mexican exports to the US is 40% so it is impossible for Trump to realize his threats to impose border taxes on Mexico without causing major damage to US manufacturing jobs. - This makes a successful renegotiation of NAFTA both possible and probable. - But the same cannot be said about US-China trade, which lacks such well-developed channels for trade. As...