Dario Perkins on:
• Markets are now more realistic on President Trump
• US tax agenda more important than fiscal
• Stimulus will come late in the business cycle
• No likely improvement in productivity and medium-term growth
• Border adjustment tax unlikely to happen
Successful renegotiation of NAFTA is likely but will not provide the template for the US administration’s future China policies. - US-Mexican trade is dominated by global value chains. US-sourced content in Mexican exports to the US is 40% so it is impossible for Trump to realize his threats to impose border taxes on Mexico without causing major damage to US manufacturing jobs. - This makes a successful renegotiation of NAFTA both possible and probable. - But the same cannot be said about US-China trade, which lacks such well-developed channels for trade. As...